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Wildfire Forecast Models

Forecasting wildfire activity in California and beyond

During wildfires, situational awareness is vital. Pyregence provides access to fire forecasting tools that are based on the state of wildfire science. This fire activity and risk forecasting system has been in development for over 10 years and through the Pyregence Project is being made publicly available. The Pyregence web-based, interactive interface displays forecasts for active fires and fire risk at a five-day horizon. An API allows for flexible integration with an organization’s unique and existing workflows to assist in tactical fire and ignition risk decision-making.

Goals

  • Enhance existing fire spread models to create scalable next-generation fire spread models reflecting recent developments in fire science and computing power
  • Disseminate timely, accurate, and easy to understand forecasts of wildland fire spread to the public, utilities, first responders, government agencies, and other stakeholders
  • Forecast risk from fires that could be ignited over the next 5 days to communities, infrastructure, and natural resources so that appropriate mitigation actions can be undertaken
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High Impact Products

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Web-platform to view active fire forecasts, 0 to 5 day fire probability and de-energization metrics from multiple wildfire models

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Enhancement of current wildfire models (Elmfire/GridFire) to include fire in the WUI, coupled fire-weather dynamics, suppression, amongst others

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Future re-design of wildfire modelling to incorporate new developments in basic science of fire behaviour modelling

Forecast Tools Team

Chris Lautenberger

Chris Lautenberger, PhD

Reax Engineering

Lead of Workgroup #3 Forecast Tools

Maria Theodori

Maria Theodori

Reax Engineering

User Engagement Team, Forecast Tools Workgroup support

Gary Johnson

Gary Johnson, PhD

Spatial Informatics Group

Programmer for fire models and forecast tools

Matt Spencer

Matt Spencer, P.E.

Spatial Informatics Group

Programmer for forecast tool development

Mariko Geronimo

Mariko Geronimo

Lumen Energy Strategy

Lead cost/benefit analysis

Ali Tohidi

Ali Tohidi, PhD

Spatial Informatics Group

Programmer fire model development

Joe Scott

Joe Scott

Pyrologix

Advisor

Ryan Pressler

Ryan Pressler

User interface/experience designer

David Saah

David Saah, PhD

Spatial Informatics Group and University of San Francisco

Principle Investigator

Shane Romsos

Shane Romsos, M.Sc.

Spatial Informatics Group

Project Manager

David Marvin

David Marvin, PhD

Salo Sciences

CEO and Co-founder