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Scenario Analyses

Analyzing wildfire scenarios under climate change to inform planning for a resilient grid

California is faced with a challenging ‘new normal’: an increased risk of megafires potentially resulting in catastrophic impacts to society over the coming century. In response, the State will be implementing the 5th Climate Change Assessment to research and plan adaptation measures. The Pyregence consortium will support the 5th Assessment by developing wildfire scenarios under a changing climate to inform adaptation planning for a more resilient electric utility grid. Pyregence Consortium will implement best available science and technology to model wildfire risk under several climate and land-use scenarios. The ethos is to compare technical approaches in an open science/open source collaboration between wildfire scientists and technologists.

The consortium will output future scenarios till the end of century differentiated by climate projections, land-use paths and landscape interventions. For each scenario, detailed data will be made publicly available to undertake secondary research to inform grid resiliency planning. All code will be open source and scenario output data will be available via a web-based platform primarily to serve 5th Assessment contributors but also the wider community of planners for a more resilient California.

Goals

Develop the next generation of coupled statistical/dynamical fire-climate-vegetation models to run long-term (to end-of-century) wildfire risk projections and incorporate best in-class science and technology to enhance the models.


Support the Fifth Assessment by running the models for long-term wildfire projections and develop a planning support tool for IOUs, State agencies and stakeholders relying on the grid to visualize the impacts of wildfire under a changing climate.

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High Impact Products

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Web-based platform to view wildfire scenarios for multiple climate projections, land-use pathways and land management interventions

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A coupled statistical/dynamical fire-climate-vegetation models to run long-term wildfire projections

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Enhancements of wildfire activity projections to address wildfire in the WUI, drought and tree mortality, improved spatial scale, ingestion of new downscaled climate projections

Scenario Analyses Team

Leroy Westerling

Leroy Westerling, PhD

UC Merced

Lead for Scenario Analysis Workgroup (#4)

Matt Hurteau

Matt Hurteau, PhD

University of New Mexico

Forest Ecosystem Modeler

David Marvin

David Marvin, PhD

Salo Sciences

Vegetation and Fuels Mapping

Benjamin Sleeter

Ben Sleeter, PhD

United States Geological Survey

Land Use Scenario Modeler

Todd Hawbaker

Todd Hawbaker, PhD

United States Geological Survey

Vegetation modeler

Max Moritz

Max Moritz

UC Santa Barbara

Advisor

David Saah

David Saah, PhD

Spatial Informatics Group and University of San Francisco

Project Investigator

Shane Romsos

Shane Romsos, M.Sc.

Spatial Informatics Group

Project Manager