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Webinar
PYRECAST – EASY-TO-USE NEAR-TERM FIRE FORECASTING TOOLS FOR IMPROVED WILDFIRE SITUATIONAL AWARENESS.
August 18, 2023, 1pm to 3pm (Pacific Time)
Pyregence Webinar Series
WEBINAR OVERVIEW
The objective of this webinar is to improve users’ familiarity with navigating the PyreCast platform’s features and functions. The webinar will also provide a demonstration of a real-world customization that can be used to inform wildfire situational awareness for electric utility de-energization (e.g., Public Safety Power Shutoff [PSPS]). We will also unveil our fully functional ‘match-drop’ tool that allows users to explore forecasted fire spread from a user defined ignition point. Please register here to confirm your spot.
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Designed For
  • Electric utility companies.
  • State and Federal agencies responsible for forest management and emergency response.
  • Anyone interested in learning more about tools used for wildfire situational awareness.
PYRECAST BACKGROUND

The PyreCast platform provides three wildfire forecasting tools for enhanced wildfire situational awareness covering the continental US including:

Active Fire Forecasting Tool
Active Fire Forecasting Tool

This tool provides 14-day fires spread forecasts for significant active fires within continental US. Active fire areas are established and recalibrated approximately every 12-hour from satellite-based heat detection data and fire spread is modeled using two different deterministic wildfire behaviors models (ELMFIRE and GridFire).

Weather Forecasting Tool
Weather Forecasting Tool

This tool provide access to seven different gridded weather forecast models having different spatial resolutions (1.33 km to 26 km) and forecast durations (15 minutes to 16 days). Each model provide access to up to fourteen fire-relevant weather variables and indices, including for example:

  • Fosberg Fire Weather Index (FFWI) – A fuel-independent measure of potential spread rate based on wind speed, relative humidity, and temperature.
  • Vapor Pressure Deficit – Difference between amount of moisture in air and how much it can hold when saturated.
  • Hot Dry Windy Index – Similar to FFWI but based on VPD.
  • Firebrand Ignition Probability – An estimate of the probability that a burning ember could ignite a receptive fuel bed based on its temperature and moisture content.
Fire Risk Forecasting Tool
Fire Risk Forecasting Tool

This tool provides 14-day fires spread forecasts for significant active fires within continental US. Active fire areas are established and recalibrated approximately every 12-hour from satellite-based heat detection data and fire spread is modeled using two different deterministic wildfire behaviors models (ELMFIRE and GridFire).

  • Relative Burn Probability – Relative likelihood that an area is burned by fires that have not yet ignited within the next six hours.
  • Impacted Structures – Approximate number of residential structures within fire perimeter for fires starting at specific location and time in the future.
  • Fire Area – Modeled fire size in acres by ignition location and time of ignition.
  • Fire Volume – Modeled fire volume (fire area in acres multiplied by flame length in feet) by ignition location and time of ignition.
  • Crown Fire Area – Proportion of area (acres) forecasted to be involved with actively burning tree crowns.
  • Power Line Ignition Rate – Estimated power line ignition rate.
WEBINAR HOSTS

Chris Lautenberger, PhD, PE

Founder of Cloudfire, Inc. and Founding Partner and Principal Engineer at Reax Engineering

Chris is a licensed Fire Protection Engineer with expertise in fire science, fire dynamics, fire modelling, and forensic fire reconstruction. His professional activities involve applying fire dynamics and combustion principles to analyze various aspects of fire and combustion processes, ranging from small-scale smoldering combustion to large-scale wildland fire dynamics. He has published on several aspects of combustion and fire, including flammability, pyrolysis, ignition, fire spread, and fire modeling. Chris has over 20 years of experience applying fire dynamics calculations and fire models in support of scientific research, fire protection engineering design, and forensic fire reconstruction. Chris has developed computer models to analyze trajectories and ignition potential of metallic and woody particles generated by conductor clashing and interactions between vegetation and overhead electrical utilities, wildland fire propagation, and wildland fire risk.

David Saah, PhD

Professor at University of San Francisco, Managing Principal at Spatial Informatics Group and Principal Investigator for the Pyregence Project

Dr. Saah has been broadly trained as an environmental scientist with expertise in a number of areas including: landscape ecology, ecosystem ecology, hydrology, geomorphology, ecosystem modeling, natural hazard modeling, remote sensing, geographic information systems (GIS) and geospatial analysis. He has used these skills to conduct research primarily at the landscape level in a variety of systems. Dr. Saah has participated in research projects throughout the United States and Internationally. His academic research uses integrated geospatial science for multi-scale mapping, monitoring and modeling of environmental spatial heterogeneity, particularly in riparian, savanna, and forest ecosystems. These efforts include quantification of change in landscape pattern, investigating the linkages between pattern and processes, and understanding the pattern-process dynamic within different environmental management regimes. To complement this, Dr. Saah’s consulting research interest and experience include: developing holistic decision support systems for resource management, assessing natural hazards, and quantifying ecosystem service valuation. In addition, all of his research addresses access, availability, and accuracy of geospatial and environmental datasets, and scale in natural resource and environmental research. Dr. Saah is committed to producing high quality research projects that integrate the most current science and technology. He is dedicated to the accurate dissemination of results from these endeavors through innovative presentations, publications, and workshops.

Shane Romsos, MS

Co-Director Natural Hazards Program at Spatial Informatics Group and Project Manager for the Pyregence Project.

Shane Romsos, MS

Shane leads the Tahoe-Sierra Team at SIG. Shane is a Wildlife Biologist with more than 25 years of professional natural resources management, policy and research experience in the public, private and non-profit sectors. His experience is broad and includes managing the design and implementation of a status and trend monitoring and evaluation program, leading regional natural resource planning efforts, managing improved forest management carbon projects, aquatic plant monitoring and mapping, life cycle assessment, GIS analysis and drone imagery collection, managing wildfire risk research projects, preparing and reviewing environmental documents, and conducting a variety of wildlife investigations (e.g., home range, habitat use, food habits, disease). Prior to joining Spatial Informatics Group, he was the Science, Monitoring and Evaluation Program Manager for the Tahoe Regional Planning Agency and was the Wildlife Program Manager for the US Forest Service. Shane has a BS majoring in Wildlife and a MS majoring in Natural Resources from Humboldt State University.