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Policy-makers and Planners
Next-Generation models

Pyregence is creating next-generation models to forecast fire risk in the coming week—and for the rest of the century. We’re pioneering new research into weather, fuels, and wildfire, and feeding this data into both near- and long-term risk models.

Government officials and policy-makers must analyze potential impacts from wildfires and identify policies that will help protect people and property.
Good policy requires good information, and that’s where Pyregence comes in. Our scientists are developing models to simulate extreme wildfires in the state through the end of the century.

Computer models can’t predict the future. What they can do is use the best available data to project a range of possible futures that might become reality, depending on the way the climate changes, the choices we make, and the policies enacted by our governments.

Compared to earlier efforts, Pyregence’s next-generation models incorporate more detailed data on climate and weather, including previously unavailable variables such as wind speed, wind direction, and relative humidity. They also feature higher-resolution inputs and outputs related to fire risk and severity (including smoke-related illness), as well as improved data on landscape changes from development, fire, timber harvesting, and fuel management.

These innovations will lead to more accurate projections of long-term wildfire risk and promote effective policy, planning, and risk mitigation. Pyregence is ensuring that government officials have the tools they need to create climate-smart policy.

Climate Change Projection Tool

We’re projecting wildfire risk through the end of the century. Policymakers and planners can use this tool in a number of ways.

Use building codes and development policies to require ignition-resistant construction materials.

Encourage housing development in low-risk urban areas and discourage new construction in the wildland urban interface.

Require risk reduction measures such as minimum street width, secondary access routes, and adequate water supplies in new developments.

Enact steep-slope development restrictions to limit construction in especially fire-prone areas.

Encourage agricultural lands, athletic fields, and recreational paths on the outskirts of cities to serve as firebreaks and buffers between wildland fires and developed areas.

More accurately determine a community’s risk profile for the purposes of insurance regulation.

Incentivize or require homeowners to create defensible space by thinning vegetation around structures.

Assess the public health threats posed by smoke emissions from wildfires and take steps to mitigate them.

Develop strategies to help people and communities recover from the emotional, financial, and ecological impacts of the wildfires that do occur.

Plan / Manage / Respond

Pyregence’s web-based platform will improve the ability of planners and policymakers to assess wildfire risks and plan appropriate responses.

COMING MAY 2023
Climate Change Projection Application: PyreClimate™

Web tool allows users to engage with a range of wildfire scenarios based on multiple climate projections, land use pathways, and land management interventions

COMING AUGUST 2021
Climate Change Projection Data Viewer

Data viewer will host historical and projected data on climate, vegetation, fire risk, and fire impact.

COMING MAY 2023
Climate Change Projection Application PyreClimate ™

Web tool allows users to engage with a range of wildfire scenarios based on multiple climate projections, land use pathways, and land management interventions

COMING AUGUST 2021
Data Viewer

A data viewer that will host historical and projected climate, vegetation, and fire risk/impact data

COMING MAY 2023
Climate Change Projection Application PyreClimate ™

Web tool allows users to engage with a range of wildfire scenarios based on multiple climate projections, land use pathways, and land management interventions

COMING AUGUST 2021
Data Viewer

A data viewer that will host historical and projected climate, vegetation, and fire risk/impact data

Learn more about the Climate Change Projection tool on the team page.

Research

The ability to assess and forecast wildfire risk based on weather conditions and other environmental factors such as fuel load is critical. Want to learn more about the research we’re advancing in these areas? Visit the following pages.

Extreme Weather and Wildfire

This team will ensure that utility companies and government agencies have the fire weather forecasts they need to make life-saving decisions. Using machine learning and wildfire simulation techniques, our scientists are evolving our understanding of the relationship between weather conditions and wildfires.

Forest Fuels and Fire Behavior

To understand fire behavior, you must first understand fuel loads. We’re improving the accuracy of fire behavior forecasting by increasing our understanding of the fuels available on the forest floor. Our scientists will map the current amount, types, and distribution of fuels, and project future fuel loads over the next 10–20 years. We’re also conducting laboratory experiments to better understand how different sizes and types of fuels burn under varying weather conditions.

Extreme Weather Conditions and Wildfire

This team will ensure that utility companies and government agencies have the fire weather forecasts they need to make life-saving decisions. Using machine learning and wildfire simulation techniques, our scientists are evolving our understanding of the relationship between weather conditions and wildfires.

Forest Fuels and Fire Behavior

To understand fire behavior, you must first understand fuel loads. We’re improving the accuracy of fire behavior forecasting by increasing our understanding of the fuels available on the forest floor. Our scientists will map the current amount, types, and distribution of fuels, and project future fuel loads over the next 10–20 years. We’re also conducting laboratory experiments to better understand how different sizes and types of fuels burn under varying weather conditions.

Extreme Weather Conditions and Wildfire

This team will ensure that utility companies and government agencies have the fire weather forecasts they need to make life-saving decisions. Using machine learning and wildfire simulation techniques, our scientists are evolving our understanding of the relationship between weather conditions and wildfires.

Forest Fuels and Fire Behavior

To understand fire behavior, you must first understand fuel loads. We’re improving the accuracy of fire behavior forecasting by increasing our understanding of the fuels available on the forest floor. Our scientists will map the current amount, types, and distribution of fuels, and project future fuel loads over the next 10–20 years. We’re also conducting laboratory experiments to better understand how different sizes and types of fuels burn under varying weather conditions.

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