Creating the next generation of wildfire forecast models
Pyregence consortium is founded on open science and technology principles, employing inclusivity and collaboration to tackle complex challenges.
Wildfire threats are ever increasing with substantial changes in fire behavior driven by higher fuel loads, more frequent extreme weather events and continued human development in the wildland urban interface. Organizations need better operational and strategic information to understand changing wildfire risks and implement effective protection and adaptation measures.
The Pyregence Consortium provides free access to cutting edge operational and strategic wildfire models. At an operational level, the consortium implements best practice science and technology to forecast wildfire activity. At a strategic level, wildfire scenario analyses will be produced to inform future wildfire risk and California’s 5th Climate Change Assessment. This collaboration brings together initiatives and leading researchers from 18 institutions representing industry, academia, and government in an effort to transform how wildfire mitigation and adaptation measures are implemented.
Pyregence will improve situational awareness during extreme weather events by developing a methodology for optimal location of weather stations and piloting an upper-air profiler over a fire season to scout for early signs of impending extreme wind events.
Advance Wildfire Science
Some fire models do not address the fundamental physics behind contemporary wildfire events. This team aims to deliver fundamental scientific advances to give rise to the next generation of wildfire models, including a new fuel mapping technique and fire spread model based on fire physics.
The active fire forecast tool provides real-time fire spread forecasts that are automatically updated as hot spots are sensed by satellites. Additionally, risk from future fires ignited up to 5 days in the future is quantified by modeling hundreds of millions of hypothetical fires ignited across California.
Climate Change & Fire
We are faced with a challenging ‘new normal’: an increased risk of megafires potentially resulting in catastrophic impacts to society over the coming century. The Pyregence consortium will develop wildfire scenarios under a changing climate to inform climate mitigation and adaptation planning.
Our collaboration has combined initiatives and researchers from 18 institutions representing industry, academia, and government to support how wildfire risk is forecasted, and when and where mitigation and adaptation is implemented.
The Pyregence project is sponsored in large part by the California Energy Commission. It does not necessarily represent the views of the Energy Commission, its employees, or the State of California. Neither the Commission, the State of California, nor the Commission's employees, contractors, or subcontractors makes any warranty, express or implied, or assumes any legal liability for the information in this document; nor does any party represent that the use of this information will not infringe upon privately owned rights.