Extreme weather icon

Extreme Weather

Determining weather conditions and other associated factors with large wildfires in the past.

The hyperlocal weather at large wildfire events is often misunderstood due to lack of accurate weather measurements, limitations in instrumentation or forecasting inaccuracies, resulting in an underestimation of conditions by weather forecast models - especially wind extrema. Pyregence will use the latest machine learning and wildfire simulation techniques to better understand local weather conditions associated with fire events to derive the areas in the state where there is the most uncertainty on fire weather conditions and need for investment in additional weather stations. An upper-air profiler will also be piloted as an example of alternative instrumentation for measuring upstream weather to better forecast fire weather conditions.

More accurate weather forecasts

Electric utilities need better weather forecasts to improve situational awareness of wildfire threats to and from the grid. Pyregence will support electric utilities by developing a methodology for optimal location of weather stations and piloting an upper-air profiler over a fire season to scout for early signs of impending extreme wind events. The goals of the workgroup are to:

Weather forecasts icon

Improve understanding of the relationship of extreme weather conditions and wildfire in order to improve forecasting accuracy about future wildfire risk

Develop a methodology for identifying optimal configurations of weather stations

Provide recommendations for future siting of weather stations

Pilot test an upper-air profiler

High Impact Products

Web map icon

Web-map for optimizing location of weather stations across the state to improve situational awareness

Data icon

Data to assess benefits of upper-air profilers

Analysis icon

Historical analysis of fires to better understand extreme weather dynamics

Extreme Weather Team

Janice Cohen

Janice Coen, PhD

University of San Francisco and University Corporation for Atmospheric Research

Lead of Workgroup #1 - Extreme Weather

Owen Doherty

Owen Doherty, PhD

Eagle Rock Analytics

Co-lead of Workgroup #1 - Extreme Weather

Tami Lavezzo

Tami Lavezzo

Sonoma Technologies

Upper Air Profiler Team

Bryan Penfold

Bryan Penfold

Sonoma Technologies

Upper Air Profiler Team

ShihMing Huang

ShihMing Huang

Sonoma Technologies

Upper Air Profiler Team

David Saah

David Saah, PhD

Spatial Informatics Group and University of San Francisco

Principal Investigator

Shane Romsos

Shane Romsos, M.Sc.

Spatial Informatics Group

Project Manager