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Near-term Wildfire Forecasting Research

Research Papers

Fire Forecasting-Related Research Papers

Members of the Wildfire Forecasting team are conducting a broad range of research related to building the next generation of forecasting models. This page will host research papers that have emerged from that work.

Mass fire behavior created by extensive tree mortality and high tree density not predicted by operational fire behavior models in the southern Sierra Nevada.

Stephens, S. L., A. A. Bernal, B. M. Collins, M. A. Finney, C. Lautenberger, D. Saah. 2022.  Forest Ecol. And Manage. 518.

Climate Change Projection Team

We’re building a web-based tool that will allow users to engage with a range of scenarios based on future climate change, land use pathways, and land management interventions. Users will be able to simulate the size and intensity of potential wildfires through the end of the century.

These risk projections will support California’s Fifth Climate Change Assessment, helping government agencies and electric utilities make smart policy and planning decisions to protect California in the face of rising wildfire risk linked to climate change.