PyreCast, A Near-Term Fire Forecasting Tool
Chris Lautenberger demonstrates PyreCast, Pyregence’s near-term fire forecasting tool. This webinar was recorded on June 22, 2022.
Chris Lautenberger, Reax Engineering
Chris is a Fire Protection Engineer based in Northern California with expertise in fire science, fire dynamics, fire modelling, and forensic fire reconstruction. He holds a PhD in Mechanical Engineering from the University of California at Berkeley where he majored in combustion and studied pyrolysis and solid-phase combustion. Chris currently leads a workgroup on a project funded by the California Energy Commission to develop next-generation near-term wildland fire spread and risk models. He has co-taught Masters-level courses in Fire Dynamics and Fire Modeling in the Department of Fire Protection Engineering at California Polytechnic State University, San Luis Obispo.
The Pyregence project consortium has developed under a California Energy Commission EPIC grant a modeling framework and easy to access web-based software tools (PyreCast – https://pyrecast.org) to improve wildfire situational awareness for electric utilities, wildfire professionals, and the public.
The PyreCast system provides three wildfire forecasting tools applicable in the continental US including:
1) 8-day fire weather forecasts
2) 5-day fire risk forecast (California only)
3) 4-day fire spread forecast
This webinar covers:
- An overview of PyreCast forecasting tools
- The methodology/models and sources of inputs used to generate fire forecasts
- Current predictive capabilities and forecast skill will be evaluated by comparing modeled and observed fire perimeters
- Areas where additional research is needed, including limitations of underlying models